The housing market outlook for Ontario. The key conclusion is that the combination of current interest rates and costs is badly impairing the viability of new supply. 

     - Find the report here.

     - The press release is here.

Also, I have rediscovered a report (from 2012) on the emergence of housing supply shortages. This report created a framework for interpretation. Click here.

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Reviving a report from 2019, on attitudes towards home buying and on the thought processes of buyers. "Buying a home is hard work". Click here.

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An attempt (March 2024) to fill gaps in some of the current discussions about housing markets, especially the supply crisis. Click here.

Two extracts:

     - Distorted data on residential investment. Click here.

     - The CMHC estimate of the shortfall. Click here.

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A deep dive (October 2023) into the data on work-put-in-place in residential construction - the current data is misleading. Click here.

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A discussion (September 2023) about inflation during the Covid era, concluding that the primary driver is disruptions of supply, not excessive demand. Click here.

My submission (March 2023) to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions ("OSFI"), on its mortgage regulations. Click here. 

 

During the past decade, federal mortgage regulations have increasingly harmed Canadians and added to risks to the economy. Click here.

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For the Agency for Co-operative Housing, a short report on the outlook for rental housing markets in Canada. Click here.

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Released May 13: We already have large housing shortages across Canada. Now, sharply higher interest rates will make the coming months (and years) even more challenging. Click here. Highlights.

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Released January 2022: During the past 15 years, the housing supply deficit in Canada has increased by 300,000 dwelling units. Click here for the report.

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Comparing the costs of owning versus renting homes in Canada. For the report click here. For the Appendix with detailed tables, click here. An Addendum, which compares owning versus renting-and-investing, was added on October 13.

 

Since 2006, most of the big cities in Canada have under-produced new housing, contributing to the mess we're in now.

 

April 26th letter to the Minister of Finance, in which I argue that the interest rate used in the stress tests should be 3.76%.

 

Slides from a Presentation given on April 21, to Mortgage Professionals Canada’s Mortgage Symposium.

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"Annual State of the Residential Housing Market in Canada" (released March 25, 2021). For Mortgage Professionals Canada, a major report on conditions and factors in the market.  Find the Press Release here

 

Rental Market Outlooks for BC. Written in the before-times, what makes this report interesting is (1) the discussion of my approach to forecasting housing markets (although without revealing the details) and (2) estimates of "balanced market thresholds" for vacancy rates.

 

​Owning versus Renting a Home in Canada - In most situations in Canada, the monthly cost of home ownership is actually lower than the cost of renting equivalent housing, and the ownership advantage increases over time.

 

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How to Dissect a Housing Bubble - (completed in 2014). I wrote this at a time when there was a lot of discussion about "over-valued" housing markets in Canada. The primary conclusion was that due to low interest rates, there was considerable potential for further price growth.

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Not so recent. 1990 report "On the Agenda" on the long-term outlook for rental housing in Canada.